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Monday 2 July 2012

2 July 2012: Australian dollar predictions and Carbon tax impacts


Australian dollar predictions: In 2011-12, AU dollar spent four times as many days above parity as below, averaging US$1.03 over the year, hit a high of US$1.10 in July and a low of US$.95 in October. Macquarie and ANZ predict dollar will hit $US1.07 in a year, Macquarie predicts dollar will stay above parity until 2015. [CR: In the same article the ANZ rep says the old prediction model placed the dollar at US$.89. We can’t predict 6 months out, and we are stating numbers for three years out?]

Advertising win for SBS Tour de France: SBS sold all advertising slots for Tour de France weeks before it began. In 2010, SBS secured broadcast rights until 2017 for an undisclosed sum, believed to be $2m to $3m. Analysts speculate value of advertising to SBS is between $4m and $5m.  Average daily audience in Australia is 700,000 viewers, higher than in the US.  As a public broadcaster, SBS is restricted to screening only 5 minutes of advertising per hour.

Carbon tax impacts: Wesfarmers CEO Richard Goyder says while Coles will take a hard line on supplier’s price rises, at some point prices will start to rise as a result of the carbon tax. Myer CEO Bernie Brookes estimated tax will cost Myer $4 million per year. Said they tendered for new electricity business and the wining tender was 37% higher than last year.  Energy Retailers Association of Australia CEO Cameron O’Reilly says carbon price will push up price, but increase also a result of rising infrastructure costs.  Treasury modelling shows carbon tax will increase prices by 0.7% in 2012-13, food to increase by less than 0.5%. Australia Industry Group survey shows 40% of manufacturing businesses, 40% of services businesses, and 44% of construction businesses will try to pass the cost to consumers.  [CR: Difficult for businesses needing to raise rates as a result of high labour costs, will be lynched for taking advantage of the carbon tax.]

Telstra Corp’s venture capital buys stake in IPscape for less than $5m: North Sydney-based IPscape was established in 2007 and is a global provider of contact centre applications, Telstra to incorporate IPscape’s technology  into its own virtual contact centre (VCC) solution for large corporate clients. Telstra’s venture capital division recently led a $35m round of financing for California-based video streaming service Ooyala and also invested in restaurant booking service Dimmi. [CR: The crazy world of tech start-ups and acquisitions.]

Barriers to Indigenous in education: Over 150,000 Australians hold an accounting or book-keeping qualification, 11 self-identify as indigenous Australians. Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people represent 2.5% of the total Australian population.  Australia’s three main accounting bodies (CPA Australia, the Institute of Chartered Accountants in Australia, and the Institute of Public Accountants, also known as the Joint Accounting Bodies) launch an initiative to attract 1000 indigenous people into the Accounting profession. Cultural barriers include a reluctance to leave traditional lands, different notions of property and ownership, and strong ties to clan and kin. [CR: Interesting to note the challenges faced.]

Business lending increases: Total lending to AU and NZ businesses by banks increased 0.8% in May. Business credit increased 3.3% over the past year, fastest annual growth since 2009.By comparison, home loan lending increased by 0.3% in May. Home lending has grown 5.1% in past year, slowest annual pace in 34 years. [CR: Increased business capital flows and decreased consumer debt... that’s good, right?]

Japan solar: Japan’s third-largest mobile company said to build nation’s largest solar plant (111 megawatts) to start operating in FY 2014. [CR: Solar is not a nuclear killer. By comparison, the recently restarted Ōi Nuclear Power Plant in Japan has an 1180 megawatt capacity.]

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